Fertility and Uncertainty

Fertility and Uncertainty
Using the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 as a “natural experiment,” and employing data collected by the German Socioeconomic Panel (GSEOP), this pilot study explores the causal effect of economic uncertainty on fertility behavior and the timing and spacing of births, highlighting the heterogeneous effects of economic uncertainty across the female population. The study also investigates whether the relationship between economic uncertainty and time of births is consistent with the real option theory used in economics to study irreversible investment during uncertain periods. The results from this analysis provide important information regarding how to understand and model fertility processes.

Academic Year
Duke Principal Investigator(s)
Primary Funding Agency