Seminar Series

Based on subjective survival probability questions in the Health and Retirement Study, we use an econometric model to estimate the determinants of individual-level uncertainty about personal longevity. This model is built around the Modal Response Hypothesis (MRH), a mathematical expression of the idea that survey responses of 0, 50 or 100 percent to probability questions indicate a high level of uncertainty about the relevant probability. We show that subjective survival expectations in 2002 line up very well with realized mortality of the HRS respondents between 2002 and 2010.

A growing number of persons living beyond age 85 underscore the need for accurate measurement and modeling of mortality at advanced ages. This is also very important issue for making correct forecasts of population aging and related demands for medical services and social support. Earlier studies indicate that exponential growth of mortality with age (Gompertz law) is followed by a period of mortality deceleration with slower rate of growth. This study challenges earlier conclusions with new data and estimates. In this study we used U.S.

Little is known about the health effects of the economic downturn, with foreclosure one of its most visible signs. Research in economics suggests that the impact of an economic downturn is first felt through emotional well-being. Hence we explore onset of depression over the interval of the economic downturn with a unique data source, the National Social Life Health and Aging Project (NSHAP). Fortuitously NSHAP wave 1 was collected in 2005-2006 and wave 2 in 2010-2011, bounding the economic downturn and foreclosure crisis.

In a very real way, the rise of undocumented migration and the growth of America's undocumented population are a product of poorly conceived immigration and border policies, which in the course of a few decades transformed Mexico-U.S. migration from a stable, circular flow of male Mexican workers going to three states into a much larger settled population of Mexican families living in 50 states.

We have reserved the last DuPRI slot on Thursday, April 26 for a practice session for students presenting at PAA this year during the regular DuPRI time slot. We hope there will be a critical mass of faculty in addition to other students to provide feedback on the presentation. For all three students, this will be the first PAA presentation.

TBA

This paper analyzes the impact of baseline household income and scholastic ability on post-secondary enrollment in South Africa. Using longitudinal data from the Cape Area Panel Study (CAPS), we analyze the large racial gaps in the proportion of high school graduates who enroll in post-secondary education. Our results indicate that baseline income and ability (measured in CAPS¿ literacy and numeracy evaluation) are strong predictors of post-secondary enrollment and statistically account for all of the black-white difference in enrollment.

This presentation will focus on a program of research that seeks to identify and better understand the multiple biological pathways through which social factors impact on trajectories of aging. Major social factors of interest include the broad impact of socio-economic status as well as the influence of patterns of social interaction with others (including both the positive and negative features of such interactions and their respective impacts on physiology).

Past macro-level research linking population and economic development has emphasized national averages. Studies in this vein focus on national fertility rates and age structure (on the population side) and average per capita incomes or national school enrollments for instance (on the economic side). As a complement to this literature, our research draws attention to population influences on economic differentiation, both within and between countries.

Dr. Valente will discuss the field of social network analysis and introduce several key hypotheses that show how networks influence behavior. He will present data from individual and community level studies on adolescent smoking, substance use, community coalitions, physician behavior, and transnational policy change among others. He will also present a taxonomy of network-based interventions and explore the utility of using social network data for accelerating the diffusion of innovations.