Several DUPRI students attended the Population Association of America (PAA) Annual Meeting in St. Louis, Missouri from May 6 - 9. There they presented their research at both panels and poster sessions. Here we highlight their work.
Does Contextual Social Trust Improve Productive Aging? A Multilevel Study of 22 European Countries
Zhe Chen, Duke University; Wanying Ling, The University of Hong Kong; Senhu Wang, National University of Singapore.
Existing studies have explored multiple contextual determinants of productive aging. However, little is known about whether social trust at the macro level influences productive aging at the individual level. In this study, we use cross-national data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) in 22 European countries. We conduct multilevel ordered logistic regression analyses with individual- and country-level covariates. Our preliminary results reveal that country-level general trust, trust in neighbors, and trust in the government are positively associated with individuals’ engagement in voluntary and educational activities; however, their associations with organizational engagement are insignificant. Moreover, heterogeneity analysis reveals that the associations between contextual trust and productive aging are more profound among individuals with a lower education level or living without a partnership. This study contributes to the discussion on the contextual determinants of productive aging and the benefits of social capital to older adults.
Social Sterilization: The Effect of Wealth Inequality on Fertility Intentions and Outcomes
Shuyi Qiu, Duke University; Christina Gibson-Davis, Duke University.
Motivated by the steady decline in U.S. fertility, this study examines how place-based wealth inequality shapes fertility intentions and outcomes. Although wealth inequality exceeds income inequality and grows more rapidly, it remains overlooked in fertility research. We hypothesize that wealth inequality depresses fertility through both material constraints, by raising perceived costs of childbearing, and psychological mechanisms, such as feelings of deprivation and anxiety. Using restricted General Social Survey (GSS) data (1972–2022) merged with GEOWEALTH-US estimates of commuting-zone-level wealth inequality, we analyze ideal fertility, realized fertility, and the gap between them (unrealized fertility) with multilevel Poisson regression and hierarchical age-period-cohort models. Preliminary results show that ideal fertility remain high in unequal areas, but realized fertility is lower, resulting in larger unrealized fertility gaps. This study reframes fertility decline as not solely a matter of personal preference but as a structural outcome of economic inequality, with implications for designing effective fertility-related policies.
Change Over Time in Correctional Regimes in U.S. States: The Joint Roles of Probation and Incarceration
AP Pittman, Duke University; Daichi Hibi, Washington University in St. Louis; Isabella Bouklas, Duke University; Michael Cao, Duke University; Fatima Fairfax, Duke University; David Rigby, University of Michigan; Tim Bruckner, University of California, Irvine; Hedy Lee, Duke University.
Recent research has moved beyond a singular focus on mass incarceration to examine how multiple arms of the criminal legal system jointly structure supervision in the United States in ways that are highly racialized. Probation is a central yet often overlooked component. An understanding of the penal landscape requires attention to how supervision is allocated between incarceration and probation, rather than simply the overall level of incarceration. Building on state-level typologies of “control regimes,” we examine race-specific incarceration and probation rates to determine the extent to which states vary over time in deploying punishment and supervision across racial groups. Preliminary results show substantial within-state variation over time in how incarceration and probation are deployed for Black versus White adults. These patterns illuminate the dynamic nature of penal change and highlight the significance of incorporating probation into accounts of penal change and its racialized nature.
From Care to Classroom: Mental Health Reform and Education
R. Marques, Duke University.
Despite growing recognition of its importance for human capital, access to mental healthcare remains limited. In this paper, we examine whether expanding community-based mental health services improves educational outcomes. We study a nationwide mental health reform in Brazil, which replaced hospital-based care with community-based Psychosocial Care Centers (CAPS). To identify the causal effect, we exploit the staggered roll-out of these units over the last two decades. Using a difference-indifferences strategy, we find that the expansion of CAPS leads to persistent reductions in dropout rates, improvements in approval rates, and declines in age–grade distortion, with effects particularly pronounced among high school students. Our findings highlight the role of mental healthcare provision in supporting human capital accumulation through educational gains.
Who Counts as Indigenous? The Politics of Official Ethnoracial Classification Technologies in Mexico, 2000-2024
Braulio Guemez, Duke University.
Research on race-making has examined international politics of ethnoracial measurement and census categories, but less attention has been paid to how states design classification technologies and use resulting statistics. This study analyzes the evolution of Mexico’s census self-identification question for Indigenous populations and how agencies applied it, alongside the traditional language criterion, in electoral districting, infrastructure planning, and demographic reporting. Using 24 years of archival data and 51 interviews with decision-makers, I show that the self-identification question emerged from negotiations between statistical recognition and bureaucratic objectivity. This compromise increased Indigenous numerical representation but proved limited for policy planning. As a result, state actors employ a statistical double standard: expanding boundaries to amplify political power (e.g., electoral districting) while narrowing them for redistributive policies via the language criterion. By unpacking bureaucratic decision-making, the study demonstrates how the state’s “many hands” actively construct and enforce ethnoracial boundaries in contemporary societies.
Who Claims Indigeneity? Intergenerational Patterns of Ethnic Classification in Contemporary Mexico
Braulio Guemez, Duke University.
This paper examines the intergenerational transmission of Indigenous classification in Mexico, focusing on how people reproduce, reject, or adopt Indigenous identification relative to their parents. Using nationally representative survey data, I analyze two trajectories: de-indigenization, when individuals with at least one Indigenous parent do not identify as Indigenous, and indigenization, when individuals without Indigenous parentage come to identify as Indigenous. Roughly 16% of the population diverges from their parents’ Indigenous status. De-indigenization is linked to cultural change, especially the intergenerational loss of Indigenous language. Indigenization, by contrast, is associated with racialized phenotypical features tied to Indigenous belonging and with Indigenous language proficiency. Additionally, 10% identify as both Indigenous and mestizo, a path correlated with higher education. These findings underscore the fluidity of ethnoracial boundaries in Mexico and demonstrate how cultural transmission, racialization, and stratification shape the reproduction and transformation of Indigenous identity across generations.
Minding Mothers: Perinatal outcomes and specialty mental health clinics expansion
Marcos Rangel, Duke University; Renan Marques, Duke University.
Maternal mental health plays a pivotal role in shaping pregnancy outcomes, early-life survival, and intergenerational well-being, yet causal evidence on the population-level consequences of mental health policy remains scarce. This study examines the impact of Brazil’s expansion of community-based mental health centers on gestational and neonatal outcomes between 2001 and 2025. Leveraging their staggered municipal rollout, we link installment dates to cohorts of conceptions and births using administrative birth, mortality, and hospitalization records. We estimate a difference-in-differences framework with dynamic effects that accommodates heterogeneous treatment timing. Results can provide new evidence on how access to mental health services influences gestation, birth weight, and early infant mortality in a middle-income setting.
Under Pressure? Forced Migration and Public Health
Renan Marques, Duke University.
In this paper, we examine the impact of the large and sudden inflow of Venezuelan refugees on public health in affected Brazilian municipalities. To identify the effect, we exploit regional variation in exposure to refugees, using distance to the only border crossing city, Pacaraima, as an instrument. We find that (1) stronger exposure to refugees increases local mortality and hospitalization rates; (2) although healthcare spending rises in affected municipalities, it fails to keep pace with the growing demand driven by population growth and the potentially poor health conditions of Venezuelans; and (3) affected municipalities absorb most of the fiscal burden using their own resources, with adverse consequences for other areas of spending, such as local education. Our findings indicate that the fiscal burden of refugee inflows can disproportionately fall on local authorities, highlighting the limitations of decentralized healthcare systems in responding to large-scale migration shocks.